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China's Politburo has shifted its monetary policy stance to 'moderately loose' for the first time since 2011, alongside a more proactive fiscal policy. This change aims to stabilize real estate and equity markets while enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments, signaling greater easing ahead and likely appealing to global investors. The decision emphasizes the need for improved macro-control and a robust policy approach to bolster foreign trade and investment.
Chinese stocks in Hong Kong saw a significant rebound, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising 3.1%, marking its largest gain since October 18. This surge followed commitments from top leaders to ease monetary policy and stimulate consumption. Additionally, the offshore yuan strengthened by 0.1%, reflecting optimism about China's economic recovery, while the yield on 10-year government bonds fell two basis points to 1.935%.
China's leadership plans to adopt a "moderately loose" monetary policy and enhance fiscal spending in 2025, marking a significant shift since 2011. This decision comes as the country prepares for potential economic challenges with the anticipated second trade war following Donald Trump's inauguration. The Politburo has committed to a more proactive fiscal approach, signaling a robust response to upcoming economic pressures.
The US Treasury plans to invest $76 billion in Bitcoin over five years, positioning it as a strategic asset to hedge against inflation and reduce national debt. Bitcoin will be securely stored in Treasury-managed vaults, with strict liquidation guidelines and transparent reporting. This initiative aims to enhance Bitcoin's legitimacy and foster global institutional adoption, despite concerns over its volatility and market impact.
US labor market data showed stronger job creation, but inflation concerns loom ahead of the Fed's upcoming decision, especially with potential government spending increases under President Trump. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates amid political uncertainty in Germany and France, while the DAX index continues to reach new highs, buoyed by hopes of a resilient US economy despite looming trade tensions.
India should prioritize the internationalization of the rupee rather than pursuing de-dollarization. The US dollar remains the dominant reserve currency, accounting for approximately 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, despite the recognition of eight major reserve currencies by the IMF.
China's top leaders are preparing for the annual central economic work conference on December 11-12 to discuss the GDP growth target and stimulus measures amid economic challenges. While the 2025 growth target is expected to remain around 5%, persistent issues like a housing downturn and weak domestic consumption continue to pressure the economy. Recent stimulus efforts, including interest rate cuts and a $1.4 trillion debt relief package for local governments, aim to bolster growth, but trade tensions with the U.S. and potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration pose additional risks.
The upcoming PUK report on the Credit Suisse bankruptcy is expected to heavily criticize the Financial Market Authority (FINMA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for their inadequate crisis management. Despite having the necessary tools, FINMA failed to intervene effectively, while the SNB's delayed response left markets unsettled. The report will also address the need for stronger oversight and a more competent Board of Directors at FINMA, highlighting a disparity in how the authority handles smaller versus larger financial institutions.
European markets are poised for a flat to lower start, with the U.K.’s FTSE 100 expected to open 5 points lower and Germany’s DAX down 7 points. Traders are closely monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while U.S. stock futures remain stable ahead of key inflation data due Wednesday.
AUD/USD has dropped to a 13-month low of 0.6389, pressured by disappointing Australian Q3 GDP figures and negative sentiment from weak Chinese inflation data. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain its cash rate at 4.35%, but a dovish shift may signal potential rate cuts in early 2025.
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China shifts to moderately loose monetary policy for first time in 14 years
08:45 09.12.2024
Chinese stocks and yuan rebound on government pledges to boost economy
08:41 09.12.2024
China shifts to loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal support
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us treasury plans significant bitcoin investment to hedge against inflation
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